Range Widely
Subscribe
Cover photo

Exploration is Key for a “Hot Streak” at Work

A new study sheds light on the behavior that precedes our most impactful work

David Epstein

Nov 9, 2021
36

Every few months, a paper comes out that is so directly relevant to topics I wrote about in Range that several friends send it to me on the same day — “Have you seen this??” — which I love.

That happened recently, with a new study of career “hot streaks.” I won’t go into the study in detail, because an excellent journalist (Derek Thompson of the Atlantic) already did. But in a nutshell:

Researchers analyzed the careers of 26,500 artists, film directors, and scientists in an attempt to figure out what predicted their greatest works. Two main themes emerged.

First: for most people, their most impactful works came clustered as part of a “hot streak,” and most only ever had one — two if they were lucky. Second: no matter the individual’s age, a hot streak reliably followed a period of broad exploration.

There is a wealth of research literature on what’s called the “explore/exploit trade-off.” “Explore” is just what it sounds like — trying new avenues, solutions, or ideas, and seeking new knowledge or skills. “Exploit” means digging into what you already know and maximizing the benefit from it. Getting the balance right is crucial. As I noted in a previous post, organizations tend to go into exploit-only mode when competition intensifies, which can make sense in the short-term, but turn disastrous in the long-term.

That was a motif of Range — that sensible short-term strategies can undermine long-term development. Whether developing athletic skills, or choosing a course of study or a career, or cultivating a work project, a wealth of research suggests that a “sampling period” (i.e. explore) sets one up for success when they eventually focus (i.e. exploit).

I Wanna Get (Work)-Personal For a Sec...

My first book, The Sports Gene, was a surprise New York Times bestseller. I had so little idea that it would take on a life of its own that I left Sports Illustrated for the investigative non-profit ProPublica just as it was coming out. It’s an understatement to say that that’s not really an advisable move with a sports book coming out.

But I felt like the book was my sports capstone project: the exploit of my years as SI’s science writer. I wanted to go back into explore mode. Except, suddenly there was a lot of pressure not to do that, and instead to brand myself as the sports science guy and write another, similar book, and quickly. The pressure was to keep exploiting.

I found it difficult to navigate. The book had consumed me and stretched my competence. I wasn’t ready for another one. A professional advisor told me: “You’d be an idiot to let it be five years before you have another book out.” (That’s the SFW version of his advice.)

Well, readers, it was six years, and it turned out fine. Range has been the most impactful work of my career. Beyond that, the research I had to do about art and music to write it fundamentally changed the way I experience a concert, or a museum. It enriched my life in ways I couldn’t anticipate. My dad’s a good guitar player; I don’t play at all. During reporting, I started going to guitar lessons with him, just as a fly on the wall to watch and listen; soon I started to be able to talk to him about a deep interest of his that I’d never really asked about. Exploration was definitely the right move for me.

The challenge, of course, is that now I’m once again in explore mode (in case you couldn’t tell from the name of this newsletter). Explore mode is invigorating; it’s also frightening. It involves the shedding of certainty and of a work identity.

By the time any major project is out in the world for consumption, I’m already a bewildered beginner at whatever’s next. In my head, it feels like my own personal version of the Buddhist Wheel of Becoming, with its cycle of life, death, rebirth and suffering. Yes, suffering. A joke I once heard: “Write about what you know — how writing ruined your life.”

Van Gogh’s Letter

In my current exploration phase, I’ve been thinking a lot about a letter I read while reporting for Range. It was written by Vincent Van Gogh to his younger brother, Theo. During reporting, I learned that every work of Van Gogh’s that most people would recognize — whether on a poster, a vodka bottle, socks, or, ya know, in a museum — was created in just the last two years of his life. His explosion of creativity was preceded by a tortuous life of exploration.

Before he even started exploring as an artist, Van Gogh had been a student, an art dealer, a teacher, a tutor, a bookstore clerk, a pastor-in-training, a preacher-in-training, and an itinerant catechist. He had an immense work ethic; his minister father preached of the sower, who must put in work now so he can reap later: “Think of all the fields that were turned down by shortsighted people.” The idea intoxicated Van Gogh. But each time he started enthusiastically down a path, he’d show spectacular promise initially — and then, just as spectacularly, he’d flame out.

The particular letter that lodged in my brain — and that has resurfaced as I explore — is Vincent’s missive to his brother in which he poured his heart out, sharing how hard he was trying to find a direction, and how lost he felt. Van Gogh likened himself to a caged bird in spring who sees other birds flying past and feels in his bones that there is something important he must do, but cannot recall what it is, and so he tortures himself inside his cage searching for the answer.

To me, the letter is breathtaking just as art — a belletristic work. (I just learned that word, and I try to use new words right away). But there’s something else. Van Gogh’s very next letter to his brother is brief: “I’m writing to you while drawing and I’m in a hurry to go back to it.”

As it happened, in that moment of despair, when Van Gogh wrote that heart-wrenching self-portrait of a lost but determined man, he was just a moment away from starting his life’s work.

I took these photos of "Memory of a Garden at Etten" at the Hermitage Museum in Russia. It isn't one of Van Gogh's most famous, but it's striking in person. On the right is a close-up. After years of experimentation, Van Gogh arrived at his textured, "impasto" style

I would have loved to excerpt Van Gogh’s (translated) letter at more length in Range, but it wasn’t the right place for it. So I’d like to end this post with a few paragraphs of that letter. And if you’ve gotten this far, I hope you’ll take a moment after you finish to just sit with your thoughts. Thus, I’ll sign off in advance so as not to disturb you: thank you for reading; please do share this post if you liked it; see you next week. Without further ado:

Subscribe for free to Range Widely
By subscribing, you agree to share your email address with David Epstein to receive their original content, including promotions. Unsubscribe at any time. Meta will also use your information subject to the Bulletin Terms and Policies
36

More from Range Widely
See all

Can Bad Number Sense Amplify Deadly Hate?

Here's a dire reason to be curious about the numbers around you
May 18
4
6

The Nazis Invented Marriage Counseling, And Other Surprising Relationship Research

Q&A with the bestselling author of a new book on the science of relationships
May 9
4
19

Here Are Two Tips for Picking Out Misleading Stats in the News

I used these, and it led to this newsletter’s first official correction of a scientific journal article
May 2
7
13
Comments
Log in with Facebook to comment

36 Comments

  • Paul Nicklen Photography
    Writes Born Wild
    It was interesting to read this insight from a fresh perspective after experiencing it firsthand in my creative pursuits. When I am in the field, my best images tend to occur when I let go of "exploit mode" (shooting safe, familiar images) and enter "e…
    See more
    This Is the Most Important Tool in My Photography Kit
    PAULNICKLEN.BULLETIN.COM
    This Is the Most Important Tool in My Photography Kit
    This Is the Most Important Tool in My Photography Kit
    2
    • 27w
    • Edited
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Paul, this is AWESOME. I can say for sure you have gained at least one new subscriber here;)
      • 27w
    View 1 more reply
  • Megan Haupt
    I thought of Range immediately after seeing news of the study pop up on LinkedIn! I recommend and share Range with my coaching clients. I use an exploratory story work process to help clients connect dots in their narrative to make better career choice…
    See more
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Megan, this is a tremendous comment, and tremendously gratifying. One of the aspects that leapt out at me — from the Dark Horse Project (on people who found fulfilling work), and the Army's Talent-Based Branching program (I added it in the afterword to…
      See more
      • 27w
    View 2 more replies
  • Antoinette Picon Hewitt
    David, I wish I could express how timely this particular newsletter topic is. When I read (inhaled in one sitting) The Sports Gene, I could not have imagined that you would also create Range which I believe is a revelation. Of course, now that I've …
    See more
    2
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Antoinette, I want to make sure I respond to this comment, but I'm a bit at a loss for words. I think your paragraph is better than anything I put in the newsletter (Van Gogh's letter excepted!), so I'll just say: thank you; enjoy the birds; you made my day.
      • 27w
  • Sriniwas Prasanna Ghate
    Hello David Sir, I am Sriniwas. I am a second-year undergrad Commerce student in Mumbai, India. I must say that I found your book 'Range' incredibly insightful. In fact, I gifted it to most of my family & friends this Diwali. These newsletters are like…
    See more
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Sriniwas, wow this is an amazing comment! You have convinced me to order Sebastian Mallaby's book. I think you essentially just wrote another installment of the Range Widely newsletter right here, so I hope other people scroll down to see your comment.…
      See more
      • 27w
    View 1 more reply
  • Jose Olivarez
    David, I am completely new to you and your work (I've only read Sports Gene and I just ordered Range) but I love it! I just found your newsletter today so I'm binging them all. Thank you for doing this!
    When in "exploration mode" how long would you s…
    See more
    • 26w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Hi Jose, so glad you're finding my work thought-provoking! In some ways, I'd say you've hit one of the fundamental questions here, and no one has a perfect answer. I think there are a few angles to approach the issue, and some of them I get into in Ran…
      See more
      • 26w
  • William Murphy
    Thanks David, this one felt different but really honest and interesting. First of all well done on not giving in to the pressure to write a quick follow up book to The Sports Gene, Range was more than worth the wait! I'm interested in your comment 'By …
    See more
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Hey William, thanks for that! To be honest, I do keep my mind open about options that don't involve writing. I'm not sure to what extent that's just a function of the steps to recovery after writing a book. Last year, I spent about six months hosting a…
      See more
      • 27w
    View 3 more replies
  • Kevin Waldron
    David,
    I've loved your books. The Frances Hasslebein story in Range helped me coach someone taking on a new career change at 58 to a fantastic result. …
    See more
    2
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Kevin, I really appreciate that! Frances is my favorite person to talk about, and became a role model for me. Honestly, whenever I spent time interviewing her, I'd be a better person for the next few days just from seeing how she dealt with people. Als…
      See more
      • 27w
  • Brad Cooper
    Interesting timing. I'm in the early stages of creating a personal vision for 2022, the 10th year in which I've traded "goals" or "resolutions" (the "what") for the personal vision (the "who"). It's still early, but as a 55 year old married, dad of 3, …
    See more
    How To Create A Vision That Really Works (Watch BEFORE setting goals!)
    YOUTUBE.COM
    How To Create A Vision That Really Works (Watch BEFORE setting goals!)
    How To Create A Vision That Really Works (Watch BEFORE setting goals!)
    • 26w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Brad, I love that idea of a motto for the year! I think I'll steal that strategy;) What you said here also reminded me of something James Clear writes about in Atomic Habits, that shaping identity purposefully is the best way to change habits, rather t…
      See more
      • 26w
    View 1 more reply
  • Sean D'Souza
    David, this is a very precise article and I think I can explain why you get that "hot streak". The funny thing is that while we ascribe the "hot streak" to something amazing, we're already in that "hot streak" in a lot of every day activities.
    In a w…
    See more
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Sean, I think that's a very interesting point! I'm going to have to think about that more. But allow me to share something that I think may present a somewhat contrary, or at least thought-provoking take: if a book project is ambitious, one will never …
      See more
      • 27w
  • Dave Vance
    This is my favorite one yet!
    • 27w
    • Author
      David Epstein
      Dave, that warms my heart! I was a little anxious about this one, both being a bit more personal, and an unusual ending. My first draft had much more detailed description of the study, but I tore that up and went with this, so positive feedback is especially meaningful.
      2
      • 27w
View 2 more comments
Share quoteSelect how you’d like to share below
Share on Facebook
Share to Twitter
Send in Whatsapp
Share on Linkedin
Privacy  ·  Terms  ·  Cookies  ·  © Meta 2022
Discover fresh voices. Tune into new conversations. Browse all publications